U.S. Presidential Debate Analysis: State of the Race

Executive Summary

With less than two months until Election Day, the “fiery presidential debate” between Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump generated sharp rhetoric on topics such as the economy, immigration, China, reproductive rights, the war in Ukraine and healthcare. Harris and Trump clashed over competing visions of America, with Trump attacking Harris on immigration and the economy, aiming to tie her to President Joe Biden’s record. Harris repeatedly provoked Trump and put him on the defensive about his record in office, mentioning that Trump “[set] traps on everything from his handling of coronavirus to abortion, tariffs, immigration, China, national security and America’s standing in the world.”

However, their policy arguments were, “largely being overshadowed by fiery exchanges over character and crowd size,” which resulted in voters gaining little substantive information on their policies, but perhaps more insight into their leadership style and temperament. While most political pundits and news outlets viewed Harris as the clear winner, The Wall Street Journal noted, “the race was essentially tied heading into Tuesday night’s event, polls showed, and it didn’t appear that the event would shake up the contest.”

Following the debate, the Harris campaign immediately challenged Trump to a second debate in October, with Trump responding on Wednesday morning that he is less inclined to have another debate. Additionally, Taylor Swift posted on Instagram shortly after the debate announcing she will vote for Harris and Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), which will likely result in a surge of new voter registrations that could benefit Democrats.

Harris Shows Composure, Gets Under Trump’s Skin

Expectations to perform were high for both candidates. Harris supporters pushed her to use this opportunity to establish herself and articulate policies effectively. Trump needed to remain focused on the issues at hand, avoid personal attacks and tie Harris to the unpopularity of the Biden administration.

Harris effectively used the debate to define both herself and Trump. By poking his vulnerable spots, such as mentioning the crowd size at his rallies, Harris led Trump off track, causing him to appear "chaotic and self-centered."

Debate jabs and claims were moderated by ABC News’ David Muir and Lindsay Davis, who conducted real-time fact checking – a departure from previous debates, and a move Republicans argued only fell upon Trump’s claims. The moderators also pressed both candidates about their changing perspectives on various issues, including abortion rights (Trump) and fracking and the war in Gaza (Harris), but often failed to follow up when the candidate did not answer the question. While there was an attempt to control Trump and Harris’s interruptions of each other with muted microphones to avoid what has happened in previous presidential debates, Trump and Harris continued to speak over each other and pressed the moderators to allow them to finish responses to personal attacks. Similar to 2016, Trump showed up to the “debate spin room” after the debate to take attention away from the Democrats and reiterate his views that the moderators were unfair.

In high-profile debates, non-verbal communication is as powerful as verbal exchanges. Body language, expressions and demeanor are closely observed, making it crucial for candidates to stay mindful of their actions throughout the event. Harris set the tone for the conversation after going for a handshake with Trump and with her expressions, including raised eyebrows, laughing and looking at Trump in disbelief as he spoke. Politico noted Harris tended to wear her tension “in her neck,” while Trump stayed more relaxed and didn’t look at Harris much during the conversation. Trump was noted for holding his composure and yielding a “poker face” when not agreeing with Harris, but both candidates were accused of seeming irritated. Despite Harris’s intentional handshake before the debate, the first handshake in a debate since 2016, there was no final handshake when they left the stage. However, the candidates did shake hands the next morning during a ceremony in New York commemorating the September 11 attacks.

Discussion of Key Issues Remains Conceptual – Leaves Little for Voters to Evaluate

Economy: Harris expanded little on her plans to uplift the middle class through her previously announced “opportunity economy.” She addressed issues like housing shortages, extending the child tax credit and tax deductions for small business startups. Harris also highlighted her commitment to investing in America’s future by focusing on advancements in AI, semiconductor chips and quantum computing. Trump reinforced his commitment to tariffs on imported goods, claiming it will protect American industries and promote domestic production, and reinforced extension of the Trump tax cuts.

Reproductive Rights: While Trump did not provide a clear answer on whether he would veto a federal ban on abortion, he stated that he supports exceptions in certain cases. In response, Harris emphasized that women have a right to bodily autonomy and reaffirmed her stance by pledging to sign legislation that would guarantee federal protections for reproductive rights.
Immigration: Harris pointed to the bipartisan border security bill that Senate Republicans blocked, suggesting Trump influenced the decision to keep the border issue as a political tool. Trump focused on crime in his remarks about immigration, blaming the Biden administration for what he described as “migrant crime.” He also perpetuated a debunked claim about Haitian immigrants allegedly eating pets in Springfield, OH.
China and Technology: Harris claimed Trump sold American chips to China to boost their military and mentioned her own strategy to secure U.S. dominance in the 21^scentury with investments in AI and quantum computing. Trump countered, claiming China gets its chips from Taiwan. Trump also said the Biden administration maintained most of his tariffs on China after his presidency. Harris also repeatedly attacked Trump for praising the leadership of Xi Jinping during the COVID-19 pandemic.
January 6: Trump maintained his existing position that he is not responsible for the violence that occurred at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. He only touched briefly on this, pivoting quickly to other topics. In her rebuttal, Harris pointed to her own lived experience at the Capitol on January 6 and used the opportunity to amplify her message of moving away from the past and toward the future.
International Affairs: Harris took a measured approach to the violence in the Middle East. She stated her belief in Israel's right to defend itself but stressed that “how they do it matters,” condemning the killing of Palestinian civilians. Harris advocated for a two-state solution to ensure the security of both Israel and Palestine. Trump, meanwhile, claimed the conflict in the Middle East would not have occurred under his leadership. He also criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, calling it a failure. Regarding Ukraine, Trump emphasized that the violence should end, but stressed the need for increased European support in the conflict.

Race and Politics: When asked about his previous statements that Harris has recently changed her racial identity, Trump claimed Harris’s racial identity doesn’t matter to him, while implying he still supports his prior comments. Consistent with her previous campaign messaging, Harris avoided identity politics and instead focused on what she described as Trump’s divisive racial messaging, pointing to his public support of the death penalty for the “Central Park Five,” five Black and Latino teenagers falsely accused of sexual assault in 1989. As Black and Latino voters – traditionally considered a Democratic voter base – become an increasingly important force in the election, the candidates’ conversations around race could be game changing.

Healthcare: The debate’s healthcare conversation centered on the Affordable Care Act. While Harris openly stated her support for “Obamacare,” Trump failed to clearly define his healthcare policy stance, referring only to vague plans. Harris primarily stuck to her existing talking points of expanding Biden’s drug pricing reforms, including Medicare negotiations and insulin price caps.
Energy and Climate Change: When asked about her position on fracking, Harris stated that she would not ban it, a shift from her previous stance. She acknowledged climate change, citing extreme weather events and rising home insurance rates in California and Florida. Trump suggested that the future of fossil fuels and oil would be "dead" under Harris’s administration. While he mentioned being a supporter of solar energy, he argued that solar farms require vast amounts of land, casting doubt on their efficiency as a primary energy source.

Debate Unlikely to Shift Polls as Both Candidates Tackle Strategic Next Steps

National polling averages have remained steady since the Democratic National Convention – with Harris holding a slim 2-point lead over Trump – highlighting how this election will focus more on voter turnout and party enthusiasm than reaching swing voters. To underscore the closeness of this race and provide historical perspective, on this date in 2016, Trump trailed Senator Hillary Clinton by 3.2 points and in 2020, trailed Biden by 8 points.

Trump’s debate performance left him appearing unprepared, and now his campaign must swiftly capitalize on opportunities to regain enthusiasm from his supporter base. Trump can refocus by highlighting Harris’s inconsistencies in her proposed polices, addressing voter dissatisfaction and solidifying his stance on abortion.

While Harris made an appeal to a broader political spectrum by citing her gun ownership and endorsements from Republicans who previously served in the Trump administration, her campaign faces its own challenges, particularly with past left-wing positions such as banning fracking and decriminalizing border crossings, which she has since reversed. To gain ground, she must expand on her proposed polices with clear and concise messaging, highlight the wins she’s made as Vice President while adroitly distancing herself from negative perceptions of Biden, particularly with respect to the state of the economy and inflation.

The debate is unlikely to sway the polls much, and the election will ultimately be decided by three primary factors in the key battleground states: party enthusiasm, get-out-the-vote operations and, to a lesser extent, the influence of a minute group of swing voters. Given these factors, the campaigns are highly likely to focus on the “red meat” issues that build partisan enthusiasm and ensure key voters show up at the polls on election day. Accordingly, we can expect more focus and rhetoric on divisive issues, coupled with a reluctance to provide policy specifics.

What’s Next?

Next Presidential Debate?: Following the debate’s conclusion, the Harris campaign posted a statement challenging the Trump campaign to a second debate in October, with Trump signaling this morning that “he may not be interested in attending another one before Election Day.” However, FOX News proposed holding a debate in October, adding it ‍“sent letters” to both campaigns before Tuesday night’s debate.
Vice Presidential Debate: Vice presidential candidates Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) will debate on Tuesday, October 1, in New York, NY at 9 p.m. E.T. The debate will be moderated by Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of CBS News.
Early Voting Begins Later This Month: Early in-person voting begins this month in five states – Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Vermont and Virginia – followed by most other states in October. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire are the only states that do not offer early in-person voting but do allow absentee ballots.
Swift Endorsement Era: Taylor Swift’s endorsement on Instagram was covered by every major outlet and gained 3.3 million likes in about one hour following her post. Her endorsement will likely result in an influx of voter registrations by her followers, as the nonpartisan nonprofit Vote.org recorded more than 35,000 new voter registrations last fall after Swift posted on Instagram encouraging people to register to vote on National Voter Registration Day.
Beware of an October Surprise and Continued Rise in Weaponized Information: Past elections have been disrupted by an “October Surprise,” such as Former President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis and subsequent hospitalization in 2020, and the FBI’s reopening of the Hillary Clinton email investigation in 2016. Be prepared for late-breaking news and rising weaponized information around key issues. Social media’s inconsistent platform governance allows viral stories to spread quickly, potentially drawing corporations into the conversation.
Expected Interest Rate Cut: The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August consumer price index report on Wednesday, September 11, which showed inflation declined to its lowest level in more than three years and, "sets the stage for an expected quarter percentage point rate cut,” after the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting on Wednesday, September 18.
Congress is Back in Session and Grappling with Another Potential Shutdown: Congress returned to session this week, and a potential government shutdown looms if a spending deal is not reached after government funding expires on Monday, September 30, the end of the 2024 fiscal year. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) plan, “to link a government funding bill to legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote,” was delayed until at least next week due to intraparty opposition. Congress is set to consider another continuing resolution to extend current government funding levels. The Washington Post reported that, “Democrats—and even some senior House Republicans—prefer a continuing resolution that extends until just after the November vote, allowing lawmakers in an end-of-year ‘lame duck’ session to hammer out funding bills with fewer political consequences for either side and freeing whoever is president come January from an early spending fight.”

Bottom Line

Yesterday’s presidential debate marked the first face-to-face exchange between Harris and Trump during this election cycle, and it may be the only time they meet on stage before Election Day. While the debate touched on key issues such as the economy, immigration, and healthcare, much of the attention was drawn to their heated exchanges and personal jabs. Both candidates used yesterday’s debate to solidify their base’s support, though it remains uncertain whether the debate will significantly alter the trajectory of the race.

For companies, the policies discussed will have far-reaching implications, particularly in areas such as regulatory changes, healthcare reform, tax policy and international trade. It is critical for businesses to stay informed and prepare for potential shifts in the political landscape as election day approaches. As the campaigns move forward, each candidate will need to refine their strategies to increase enthusiasm among their supporters, drive turnout and appeal to the small number of remaining undecided voters in the key battleground states. With early voting beginning as early as next week in some states, both campaigns face pivotal moments that could shape the final weeks of the election.

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